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Dr. Eckhard Szimba


Im Auftrag der Europäischen Kommission, Generaldirektion Verkehr und Energie, 4. Rahmenprogramm





 SCENES: Modelling and methodology for analysing the interrelationship between external developments and European transport.



Project Funding

The SCENES project was funded by the European Commission (DG Transport and Energy) under the Transport RTD Programme of the 4th Framework Programme.



Project summary

The SCENES project is based on the earlier 4th Framework Programme projects SCENARIOS and STREAMS. Research work is subdivided into three work areas (Work Area 10, Work Area 11 and Work Area 12). The aims of the project are as follows:

Work Area 10 embraces research work on drivers of transport demand. The analyses of the SCENARIOS project are extended by incorporating research on demand/ supply interaction, by examining regulatory systems applied in the transport sector, and by considering institutional aspects and studies on breaks in trends. Furthermore, forecasts of external factors for 2020/ 2040 are generated. In addition, with the SCENES Internet Database an information system with regional base year, data for external factors and transport demand-influencing indicators is established. The lowest available NUTS level is NUTS 3. 35 European countries are covered by this information system.

In Work Area 11 the STREAMS Strategic Transport Model of the EU is extended to Eastern Europe and enhanced. After its re-calibration this model will be validated as the SCENES European Forecasting Model. The model will be linked to an appended module on freight to demonstrate how the SCENES model can take into account more detailed information from other models, for areas of specific policy interest.

Work Area 12 covers the issue of defining transport demand scenarios for the EU for 2020 and beyond. These scenarios are made up of external, socio-economic scenarios, and sets of policy scenarios. A detailed method for developing internally consistent EU scenarios is documented. The external scenarios are based on the two concepts of integration and opening of Europe and behavioural and structural changes. The policy scenarios address the impacts of these two external scenarios.




               Transport Demand-Influencing Factors: The SCENES Internet Database